DBS Annual Chartbook: 2020 in 72 charts


Economic slowdown is on the cards, but central banks worldwide stand ready to keep the punch bowl of liquidity full for the markets. Watch out for a range of geopolitical and social risks.
Taimur Baig09 Dec 2019
  • A bottom in the electronics cycle would bring much-needed cheer for manufacturers and exporters
  • USD strength to sustain, as rate and growth differentials favour the world’s reserve currency
  • A modest DM-to-EM rotation of flows by value seeking investors could support EMFX
  • As extreme risk aversion fades, the stock of negative yielding debt will shrink
  • We are wary of high levels of corporate leverage, especially Chinese and US high yield issuers
Photo credit: AFP Photo


Overview

Modest slowdown in the world’s largest economies is on the cards, driven by lacklustre trend in investment



India, Indonesia, and Malaysia have the smallest buffers against short-term liabilities. China and the Philippines have growing vulnerabilities as well



After nearly 18 months of weakness, the slump in global trade may end in 2020, with electronics demand leading the recovery path



Key Asian central banks have cut rates in recent decades to narrow their policy rate differential vis-à-vis the US Fed considerably. Could 2020 see a reversal of this dynamic?



To read the full report, click here to Download the PDF.


Taimur Baig, Ph.D.

Chief Economist - G3 & Asia
taimurbaig@dbs.com

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