Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

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Asia

India / GDP

Keeping an eye on India’s rain
June 27, 2017
Keeping an eye on India’s rain

Sowing activity is progressing well in India, as cumulative rainfall marks an improvement over last year’s.

Thailand / GDP

Plenty of excess capacity
June 27, 2017
Plenty of excess capacity

We don’t see any reason to be more upbeat on GDP growth outlook in the near term until we see stronger growth in the manufacturing sector – and an alleviation of excess capacity.

Singapore / GDP

Singapore’s inflation spiked up and industrial output moder...
June 27, 2017
Singapore’s inflation spiked up and industrial output moderated

Core inflation remains fairly high, and while electronics output remains a bright spot, we expect production growth to run sideways in the coming months before declining at the latter part of the yea...

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.22.5
Japan0.21.11.01.31.0
Eurozone1.11.91.71.71.8
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.4
Malaysia6.05.04.25.04.6
Philippines6.25.96.96.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.36.4
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.52.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.72.8
India*7.58.07.17.37.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.52.52.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.61.6
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.0
Malaysia3.12.12.13.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.83.23.2
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.20.91.7
Vietnam4.10.62.73.73.2
China2.01.42.02.02.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.02.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.54.55.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US……………
Japan111.4114116117119
Eurozone1.1151.111.111.111.10
Indonesia13,32413,39313,41113,42913,447
Malaysia4.294.224.224.234.24
Philippines50.450.250.450.750.9
Singapore1.391.391.391.401.40
Thailand34.034.434.534.734.9
Vietnam^22,72522,72222,77122,82022,869
China*6.836.886.947.017.08
Hong Kong7.807.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.431.231.231.331.4
South Korea1,1411,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.664.864.864.965.0
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US1.251.501.752.002.25
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.50
India6.256.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Currencies

Short-term momentum is still weak for most currencies
June 27, 2017
Global

Sentiment remains weak for most currencies in the short term, with the commodity currencies and THB the only ones to buck this trend.

US / Rates

There’s little impetus for a strong trend in US Treasurys
June 27, 2017
US

From a broader perspective, not much has changed in US Treasurys and – with little on the US data calendar – there isn’t much impetus for the market to trend strongly in either direction.

Insights and Analysis

India / GDP

India gets ready for goods-and-services tax...
June 23, 2017

The impact of the GST is expected to be mixed in the near term but beneficial in the medium- to long-term; this reform will be a litmus test for the government as the economy begins another phase of ...

Key summary points
  • The goods-and-services tax is to be rolled out on 1 July
  • This will be a test for the govt, coming close on the heels of disruption caused by demonetisation
  • Teething issues are likely
  • The impact is likely to be mixed in the near term but beneficial in future; longer out, the shift…
  • …to a streamlined tax system will improve the ease of doing business and boost rating prospects

Read more reports

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