Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Economics, Currencies & ...

DBS tracks developments in the economies, foreign exchange and fixed income markets of the Asia-11 (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam...

The tone of the Reserve Bank of India’s minutes has turned distinctly hawkish, raising the odds that a shift in policy stance could happen in June.

Over the past few decades, trade has become increasingly dominated by services, technology, and knowledge, rendering the usual discussion on goods trade deficits moot. We take a look at the changing ...

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Asia

Asia / GDP

This Week: China’s 1Q GDP in focus

April 16, 2018

As per our Nowcasting model, China’s real GDP grew by over 7% in 1Q. But ingredients for a slowdown in 2Q are in place, given the soft March figures.

India / Rates

Indian policy rates maintain a steady course

April 05, 2018

In a surprising move, India’s central bank took a very dovish view on the inflation path for the year while keeping benchmark rates unchanged on Thursday.

Taiwan / GDP

Taiwan largely spared from US tariffs on China

April 04, 2018

The repercussions on Taiwan, a main supplier of electronic components to China, should be smaller than initially feared. We will be watching this space.

Key Indicators

GDP
Inflation
Currency
Interest Rates

GDP
Inflation
Currency
Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

	2015	2016	2017	2018f	2019f
China	6.9	6.7	6.9	6.4	6.2
Hong Kong	2.4	2.0	3.8	3.3	2.9
India*	7.5	8.0	7.1	6.6	7.2
Indonesia	4.9	5.0	5.1	5.3	5.4
Malaysia	5.0	4.2	5.9	5.0	5.0
Philippines**	5.9	6.9	6.7	6.7	6.7
Singapore	2.0	2.0	3.6	3.0	2.7
South Korea	2.8	2.9	3.1	2.9	2.9
Taiwan	0.8	1.4	2.9	2.8	2.4
Thailand	2.9	3.2	3.9	4.0	4.0
Vietnam	6.7	6.2	6.8	6.4	6.6
Eurozone	1.9	1.8	2.5	2.2	2.2
Japan	1.1	0.9	1.7	1.1	0.9
United States***	2.6	1.5	2.3	2.6	2.5

* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

	2015	2016	2017	2018f	2019f
China	1.4	2.0	1.6	2.1	2.2
Hong Kong	3.0	2.4	1.7	2.0	2.5
India*	6.0	4.9	4.5	3.7	4.6
Indonesia	6.4	3.5	3.8	4.0	4.5
Malaysia	2.1	2.1	3.9	3.5	3.0
Philippines**	1.4	1.3	2.9	4.2	3.5
Singapore	-0.5	-0.5	0.6	1.0	1.8
South Korea	0.7	1.0	1.9	1.8	1.8
Taiwan	-0.3	1.4	0.6	1.0	1.0
Thailand	-0.9	0.2	0.7	1.5	1.5
Vietnam	0.6	2.7	3.5	3.6	3.8
Eurozone	0	0.2	1.5	1.3	1.4
Japan	0.8	-0.1	0.5	0.6	1.0
United States***	0.1	1.3	2.1	1.8	1.8

* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

	1Q18	2Q18	3Q18	4Q18	1Q19
China*	6.39	6.49	6.60	6.56	6.52
Hong Kong	7.82	7.83	7.83	7.82	7.82
India	64.70	65.90	67.00	67.20	67.40
Indonesia	13,596	13,747	13,900	13,960	14,019
Malaysia	3.95	4.08	4.20	4.18	4.16
Philippines	52.6	53.3	54.0	54.4	54.8
Singapore**	1.32	1.35	1.38	1.37	1.37
South Korea	1,082	1,121	1,160	1,148	1,136
Taiwan	…	…	…	…	…
Thailand	31.8	32.8	33.9	33.6	33.3
Vietnam***	22,745	22,832	22,920	22,970	23,020

Eurozone	1.23	1.19	1.16	1.17	1.19
Japan	108	112	116	115	114

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Policy interest rates, end of period

	1Q18	2Q18	3Q18	4Q18	1Q19
China*	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35
Hong Kong	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
India	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.25
Indonesia	4.25	4.25	4.25	4.50	4.75
Malaysia	3.25	3.25	3.50	3.50	3.50
Philippines	3.00	3.25	3.50	3.50	3.75
Singapore**	1.40	1.65	1.90	2.15	2.15
South Korea	1.50	1.75	1.75	2.00	2.00
Taiwan	1.38	1.38	1.38	1.50	1.50
Thailand	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.75
Vietnam***	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.50

Eurozone	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Japan	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Currencies

GBP a “sell the fact” on BOE hike; curve steepening risks i...

April 19, 2018

The rally in the British pound, the best performer this year, is starting to show signs of fatigue. Meanwhile, Indian 10Y bonds are retaining recent losses. For more on currencies and rates, check ou...

Europe / GDP

Eurozone politics, US tariffs, and the ECB

March 05, 2018

Concerns over the results of the Italian elections, a potential trade war with the US, and the strength of the Euro could keep investors on edge this week.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Insights

Economics, Currencies & Rates Research...

April 20, 2018

Key Summary Points

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Asia
Global

Asia
Global

India / Rates

Indian policy rates maintain a steady course

April 05, 2018
Taiwan / GDP

Taiwan largely spared from US tariffs on China

April 04, 2018
Singapore / Rates

SGD liquidity is tighter than it appears

April 03, 2018

Singapore / GDP

Another perspective on the trade war

March 23, 2018
Singapore / Rates

Payback for short-term SGD rates

March 21, 2018
China / Rates

Yi’s appointment signals policy continuity

March 20, 2018

India / GDP

India’s current account concerns

March 19, 2018
India / GDP

India’s macro picture gets a breather

March 13, 2018
Hong Kong / GDP

Hong Kong’s economic outlook in 8 charts

March 05, 2018

Economics

Economics, Currencies & ...

India’s RBI Minutes stri...

Weekly: China-US trade d...

AsiaView All

This Week: China’s 1Q GDP in focus

Indian policy rates maintain a steady course

Taiwan largely spared from US tariffs on China

Key Indicators

GDP growth, % YoY

CPI inflation, % YoY

Exchange rates, end of period

Policy interest rates, end of period

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

View AllGlobal

GBP a “sell the fact” on BOE hike; curve steepening risks i...

Eurozone politics, US tariffs, and the ECB

Economics, Currencies & Rates Research...

Key Summary Points

Read more reports

View AllDiscover All

Indian policy rates maintain a steady course

Taiwan largely spared from US tariffs on China

SGD liquidity is tighter than it appears

Another perspective on the trade war

Payback for short-term SGD rates

Yi’s appointment signals policy continuity

India’s current account concerns

India’s macro picture gets a breather

Hong Kong’s economic outlook in 8 charts

Eurozone politics, US tariffs, and the ECB

US Yields: The big 3%

Eurozone: Growth ends 2017 on a strong note

ECB signals status quo, focus on March

Steady FOMC

Political risk returns

A dichotomous currency market this week

Markets turn defensive

Euro’s lift from German GDP to be short-lived

Asia

Global

Discover All