Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

China / Economics

Shanghai trip notes: Weak demand; improving liquidity

March 14, 2019
Shanghai trip notes: Weak demand; improving liquidity

The top client questions were on trade war, exchange rates, and impact of fiscal/monetary policy on growth outlook.

Singapore / Rates

SGD rates: Time to outperform

March 12, 2019
SGD rates: Time to outperform

SGD rates outperformance ahead.

India / Economics

Video: India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019
Video: India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

In this video,Taimur Baig, DBS Chief Economist, interviews our India economist, Radhika Rao, on how various aspects of the Indian economy and markets tend to behave around elections.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

201620172018e2019f2020f
China6.76.96.66.26.0
Hong Kong2.03.83.32.52.0
India*8.07.16.77.17.4
Indonesia5.05.15.25.25.1
Malaysia4.25.94.74.54.2
Philippines**6.96.76.36.56.4
Singapore2.03.93.23.02.8
South Korea2.93.12.72.62.4
Taiwan1.43.12.61.91.8
Thailand3.23.34.13.84.0
Vietnam6.26.87.16.66.3
Eurozone1.82.51.91.21.5
Japan0.91.90.70.70.5
United States***1.52.33.02.51.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

201620172018e2019f2020f
China2.01.62.12.32.3
Hong Kong2.41.52.52.72.5
India*4.94.53.64.04.2
Indonesia3.53.83.23.63.6
Malaysia2.13.812.51.6
Philippines**1.32.95.23.93.8
Singapore-0.50.60.41.81.5
South Korea1.01.91.51.11.5
Taiwan1.40.61.30.71.0
Thailand0.20.71.11.41.5
Vietnam2.73.53.53.83.4
Eurozone0.21.51.81.21.3
Japan-0.10.51.01.11.6
United States***1.32.12.62.52.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q20
China*6.907.007.107.057.00
Hong Kong7.857.857.857.847.83
India72.0073.0074.0073.5073.00
Indonesia14,20014,60014,80014,70014,600
Malaysia4.104.204.304.254.20
Philippines53.054.055.054.554.0
Singapore**1.381.401.421.411.40
South Korea1,1401,1601,1801,1701,160
Taiwan
Thailand32.033.034.033.533.0
Vietnam***23,20023,30023,40023,35023,300
Eurozone1.11.081.061.071.08
Japan111113115114113
United States
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q20
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kong
India6.256.006.006.006.00
Indonesia6.006.006.006.006.00
Malaysia3.253.253.253.253.25
Philippines4.754.754.754.754.75
Singapore**1.802.052.302.302.30
South Korea1.751.751.751.751.75
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
Thailand1.751.751.751.751.75
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.00
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
United States2.502.502.753.003.00
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

Macro Insights

India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019

Global

Global / Rates

Macro Strategy

March 21, 2019
Global

FOMC relent and the rates/FX outlook

Global / GDP

Chart of the Week: Fed vs Markets

March 18, 2019
Global

Fed rate pause is expected to continue at Thursday’s decision. New dot plots bear watching.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Economics & Strategy

Research Library...

March 21, 2019

Economics and Macro Strategy

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