Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

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Asia

Singapore / GDP

Export performance is holding up but…
August 18, 2017
Export performance is holding up but…

It is also increasingly showing signs of lethargy – consistent with our view that Singapore’s export rally has peaked.

Philippines / GDP

A strong showing, but keep an eye on investment growth
August 18, 2017
A strong showing, but keep an eye on investment growth

Much of the Philippine 2Q17 economic data was robust, but moderating investment growth has given us reason to hold back on upgrading our full-year GDP forecast.

Taiwan / GDP

Attention shifts to outlook for 2018
August 18, 2017
Attention shifts to outlook for 2018

On balance, the short-term positives still seem to outweigh the negatives. We expect a slightly better growth outlook for the next 6-12 months.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.22.5
Japan0.21.11.01.31.0
Eurozone1.11.91.72.02.2
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.4
Malaysia6.05.04.25.04.6
Philippines6.25.96.96.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.36.4
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.52.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.42.5
South Korea3.32.82.82.72.8
India*7.58.07.17.37.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.52.52.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.61.6
Indonesia6.46.43.54.24.7
Malaysia3.12.12.13.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.83.23.2
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.20.91.7
Vietnam4.10.62.73.73.2
China2.01.42.02.02.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.02.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.54.04.7
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US……………
Japan109.4114116117119
Eurozone1.1721.161.161.161.16
Indonesia13,35813,39313,41113,42913,447
Malaysia4.304.224.224.234.24
Philippines51.350.450.751.051.3
Singapore1.371.361.361.361.36
Thailand33.333.133.133.133.1
Vietnam^22,72922,72222,77122,82022,869
China*6.686.766.766.766.76
Hong Kong7.827.807.807.807.80
Taiwan30.331.231.231.331.4
South Korea1,1431,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.264.864.864.965.0
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US1.251.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.003.253.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.256.256.006.006.00
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.50
India6.006.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Rates

Risky assets looking for correction
August 18, 2017
US

Risk aversion may push yields lower, but 10-year US Treasury yields below 2% may not be fundamentally justified.

Europe / Rates

A gradual and long-drawn taper
August 18, 2017
Europe

The minutes of the European Central Bank’s July review demonstrated the governing council’s caution on inflation, tempering tightening expectations and causing the EUR to lose ground.

Insights and Analysis

South Korea / GDP

Assessing Moon’s first 100 days in office...
August 17, 2017

Korean President Moon Jae-in’s government is pushing ahead with domestic policies to boost incomes and reduce inequality, in line with his campaign pledges. But we see some risks ahead.

Key summary points
  • Moon is pursuing a set of policies pledged during the election
  • A supplementary budget and minimum wage hike have boosted hopes for growth in 2017-18
  • But corporate profitability, slowing property market, rising public debt and inflation pose risks
  • Relations with China and US remain stable under the new government
  • North Korea remains a key source of uncertainty

Read more reports

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