Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Thailand / GDP

Below-Potential Consumption

April 28, 2017
Below-Potential Consumption

Thailand’s GDP growth is expected to have accelerated in 1Q17, but for growth to return to – and sustain within – the 3.5-4.0% range, we need to see stronger consumption growth.

Japan / Rates

No QE Exit Yet

April 28, 2017
No QE Exit Yet

For the first time in over nine years, Japan’s central bank described the economy as in a moderate “expansion”. But subdued inflation means little chance of a quantitative easing exit for now.

South Korea / GDP

Keeping 2017 GDP Forecast at 2.5%

April 27, 2017
Keeping 2017 GDP Forecast at 2.5%

We currently maintain Korea’s GDP forecast at 2.5% for FY17 as the upside and downside risks to growth appear balanced for the time being.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.62.6
Japan0.31.21.01.01.1
Eurozone0.91.91.71.61.7
Indonesia5.04.95.05.35.4
Malaysia6.05.04.24.54.6
Philippines6.25.96.86.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.66.7
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.52.5
India*7.27.97.27.67.8
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.22.32.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.31.4
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.1
Malaysia3.12.12.12.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.93.0
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.21.62.1
Vietnam4.10.62.74.03.2
China2.01.42.02.32.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.42.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.65.05.2
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US
Japan111.3113114116117
Eurozone1.0871.051.041.041.04
Indonesia13,31413,55113,61413,67713,740
Malaysia4.354.504.544.574.60
Philippines50.050.250.751.151.5
Singapore1.401.441.441.451.45
Thailand34.635.635.735.936.0
Vietnam^22,73222,84923,03423,21823,402
China*6.907.027.117.197.28
Hong Kong7.787.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.231.431.531.531.5
South Korea1,1301,1731,1741,1751,177
India64.268.868.969.169.3
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US1.001.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Europe / Rates

ECB Inches Toward a Balanced Stance

April 28, 2017
Europe

Hopes are rising that once the second round of the French poll is over, the European Central Bank’s June meeting will see a more balanced commentary, along with updated economic estimates.

Global / GDP

Sentiment Lags Behind Data

April 28, 2017
Global

Sentiment last year was as sour as it comes, belying the fact that there was significant economic recovery over the year before.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Insights

Economics, Currencies & Rates Research...

April 25, 2017

DBS tracks developments in the economies, foreign exchange and fixed income markets of the Asia-11 (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam...

Key Summary Points
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