Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

India / Currencies

Prioritising Competitiveness

February 28, 2017
Prioritising Competitiveness

The Indian rupee was relatively unaffected by last year’s demonetisation move, and the authorities are likely to be tolerant of modest rupee depreciation moving forward.

Singapore / Inflation

Price Pressures on the Rise

February 28, 2017
Price Pressures on the Rise

Singapore’s inflation has returned to the positive, and we have revised up our inflation forecast for the year, keeping in mind additional price pressures this year.

South Korea / GDP

Seasonal Factors to Help Trade and CPI

February 28, 2017
Seasonal Factors to Help Trade and CPI

Korea’s exports are expected to have picked up to 13% in February while CPI inflation likely eased to 1.6%.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.52.42.61.72.7
Japan2.00.31.21.01.0
Eurozone-0.30.91.91.71.6
Indonesia5.65.04.95.05.3
Malaysia4.76.05.04.24.5
Philippines7.16.15.96.86.4
Singapore4.42.92.02.02.8
Thailand2.90.92.83.23.4
Vietnam5.46.06.76.26.6
China7.77.36.96.76.5
Hong Kong3.12.52.41.02.0
Taiwan2.24.00.71.52.1
South Korea2.93.32.62.72.5
India*6.77.37.66.97.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.51.60.11.22.2
Japan0.42.70.8-0.10.5
Eurozone1.50.60.00.20.6
Indonesia6.46.46.43.54.5
Malaysia2.13.12.12.12.2
Philippines2.94.21.41.82.7
Singapore2.41.0-0.5-0.51.2
Thailand2.21.9-0.90.21.5
Vietnam6.64.10.62.73.4
China2.62.01.42.01.8
Hong Kong4.34.43.02.61.5
Taiwan0.81.2-0.31.41.0
South Korea1.31.30.71.01.6
India*9.56.04.94.85.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US
Japan112.8111113114115
Eurozone1.0581.081.081.071.07
Indonesia13,34113,33913,51813,69713,876
Malaysia4.444.464.564.674.78
Philippines50.349.850.250.751.1
Singapore1.411.441.451.461.48
Thailand34.936.336.536.636.8
Vietnam^22,78222,78222,78222,78222,782
China*6.876.937.027.117.19
Hong Kong7.767.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.732.232.432.532.7
South Korea1,1351,1991,2011,2041,206
India66.769.670.571.472.4
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US0.751.001.251.501.75
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.20-0.20
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.754.755.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Currencies

Cautious of Trump Speech

February 28, 2017
Global

The market is cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s address to the US Congress on Tuesday. We outline what is needed to push the US dollar higher.

US / Rates

Playing Catch-Up

February 28, 2017
US

The US Federal Reserve has some catching up to do and the sooner it starts, the better markets will take it in the end.

Insights and Analysis

China / Currencies

The Rise and Rise (and Rise) of the Yuan...

February 24, 2017

The Chinese yuan will continue its 20-year march north, beneath all the huckus-ruckus of bilateral currency moves that few can explain and fewer can predict.

Key summary points
  • Too many Americans have a myopic view of the yuan
  • They measure its value against the US dollar alone; This is a mistake
  • The yuan has appreciated by 41% in trade-weighted terms since 2005
  • The appreciation of the yuan owes mainly to faster GDP and income growth than in the West
  • The yuan will continue to trend north accordingly

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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