Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

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Asia

Hong Kong / GDP

Hong Kong: Looking beyond the typhoon
November 20, 2018
Hong Kong: Looking beyond the typhoon

The Hong Kong economy has been hit by a super typhoon and Sino-US trade tensions.

Hong Kong / GDP

Hong Kong chart book - Increasing external headwinds
November 19, 2018
Hong Kong chart book - Increasing external headwinds

Real GDP growth has slowed to 2.9% YoY in 3Q18 from its robust 4% performance in 1H18. Economic activities halted during super typhoon in September.

China / GDP

China chart book - Slowing growth and weakening sentiments
November 13, 2018
China chart book - Slowing growth and weakening sentiments

China’s exports data in October surprised to the upsside, likely reflecting continued shipment frontloading and strong US demand.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China6.96.76.96.66.2
Hong Kong2.42.03.83.32.9
India*7.58.07.16.77.4
Indonesia4.95.05.15.15.3
Malaysia5.04.25.94.74.5
Philippines**5.96.96.76.36.5
Singapore2.02.03.63.43.0
South Korea2.82.93.12.92.9
Taiwan0.81.42.92.72.2
Thailand2.93.23.94.54.2
Vietnam6.76.26.86.46.6
Eurozone1.91.82.51.91.8
Japan1.10.91.71.10.9
United States***2.61.52.33.02.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2015201620172018f2019f
China1.42.01.62.12.2
Hong Kong3.02.41.72.52.5
India*6.04.94.53.64.4
Indonesia6.43.53.83.24.0
Malaysia2.12.13.91.32.5
Philippines**1.41.32.95.34.7
Singapore-0.5-0.50.60.71.8
South Korea0.71.01.91.51.8
Taiwan-0.31.40.61.31.0
Thailand-0.90.20.71.31.6
Vietnam0.62.73.53.63.8
Eurozone0.00.21.51.41.4
Japan0.8-0.10.50.81.0
United States***0.11.32.12.52.0
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

3Q184Q181Q192Q193Q19
China*6.877.007.107.207.15
Hong Kong7.837.857.857.857.84
India72.5074.0075.0076.0077.00
Indonesia14,90115,30015,45015,60015,750
Malaysia4.144.204.254.304.27
Philippines54.054.555.055.556.0
Singapore**1.371.401.421.441.43
South Korea1,1101,1601,1801,2001,190
Taiwan……………
Thailand32.333.033.534.033.8
Vietnam***23,32023,40023,50023,60023,550
Eurozone1.161.121.101.081.09
Japan114114116118117

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Policy interest rates, end of period

3Q184Q181Q192Q193Q19
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kong……………
India6.506.506.756.757.00
Indonesia5.756.006.256.506.50
Malaysia3.253.253.253.253.25
Philippines4.504.755.005.255.25
Singapore**1.641.852.102.302.55
South Korea1.501.501.501.751.75
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
Thailand1.501.501.752.002.00
Vietnam***6.256.256.506.506.75
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Rates

Macro Strategy
November 21, 2018
Global

SGS duration's fading appeal; tech selloff to hurt Asian FX

Global / GDP

Chart of the Week: China’s weakening monetary policy transm...
November 19, 2018
Global

The PBOC’s monetary policy have not accomplished much yet. The authorities would need to take much greater easing measures than would have been warranted just a few years ago.

Insights and Analysis

Philippines / Rates

Philippines: Further policy rate hike is likely...
November 21, 2018

Stubborn inflation prompted BSP to raise the policy rate by 25bps to 4.75% in mid-November.

Key summary points
  • The monetary board reiterated that they will remain proactive to temper inflation risks
  • Inflation is likely to ease in 2019 as tax related impact dissipates
  • Even with the prospect of decelerating inflation, real interest rate is relatively low
  • Hence, we see another 25bps rate hike in December

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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