Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

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Economics and Macro Strategy

US FOMC has taken one more step toward signalling an end to rates normalisation. We think the Fed’s implicit signal is that it over the near term it may well take a relaxed view about inflation

Thailand elections on March 24 (Sunday), will be a bigger watch factor than today’s Bank of Thailand (BOT) rate review.

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Asia

China / Economics

Shanghai trip notes: Weak demand; improving liquidity

March 14, 2019

The top client questions were on trade war, exchange rates, and impact of fiscal/monetary policy on growth outlook.

Singapore / Rates

SGD rates: Time to outperform

March 12, 2019

SGD rates outperformance ahead.

India / Economics

Video: India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019

In this video,Taimur Baig, DBS Chief Economist, interviews our India economist, Radhika Rao, on how various aspects of the Indian economy and markets tend to behave around elections.

Key Indicators

GDP
Inflation
Currency
Interest Rates

GDP
Inflation
Currency
Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

	2016	2017	2018e	2019f	2020f
China	6.7	6.9	6.6	6.2	6.0
Hong Kong	2.0	3.8	3.3	2.5	2.0
India*	8.0	7.1	6.7	7.1	7.4
Indonesia	5.0	5.1	5.2	5.2	5.1
Malaysia	4.2	5.9	4.7	4.5	4.2
Philippines**	6.9	6.7	6.3	6.5	6.4
Singapore	2.0	3.9	3.2	3.0	2.8
South Korea	2.9	3.1	2.7	2.6	2.4
Taiwan	1.4	3.1	2.6	1.9	1.8
Thailand	3.2	3.3	4.1	3.8	4.0
Vietnam	6.2	6.8	7.1	6.6	6.3
Eurozone	1.8	2.5	1.9	1.2	1.5
Japan	0.9	1.9	0.7	0.7	0.5
United States***	1.5	2.3	3.0	2.5	1.5

* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

	2016	2017	2018e	2019f	2020f
China	2.0	1.6	2.1	2.3	2.3
Hong Kong	2.4	1.5	2.5	2.7	2.5
India*	4.9	4.5	3.6	4.0	4.2
Indonesia	3.5	3.8	3.2	3.6	3.6
Malaysia	2.1	3.8	1	2.5	1.6
Philippines**	1.3	2.9	5.2	3.9	3.8
Singapore	-0.5	0.6	0.4	1.8	1.5
South Korea	1.0	1.9	1.5	1.1	1.5
Taiwan	1.4	0.6	1.3	0.7	1.0
Thailand	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.4	1.5
Vietnam	2.7	3.5	3.5	3.8	3.4
Eurozone	0.2	1.5	1.8	1.2	1.3
Japan	-0.1	0.5	1.0	1.1	1.6
United States***	1.3	2.1	2.6	2.5	2.5

* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

	1Q19	2Q19	3Q19	4Q19	1Q20
China*	6.90	7.00	7.10	7.05	7.00
Hong Kong	7.85	7.85	7.85	7.84	7.83
India	72.00	73.00	74.00	73.50	73.00
Indonesia	14,200	14,600	14,800	14,700	14,600
Malaysia	4.10	4.20	4.30	4.25	4.20
Philippines	53.0	54.0	55.0	54.5	54.0
Singapore**	1.38	1.40	1.42	1.41	1.40
South Korea	1,140	1,160	1,180	1,170	1,160
Taiwan	…	…	…	…	…
Thailand	32.0	33.0	34.0	33.5	33.0
Vietnam***	23,200	23,300	23,400	23,350	23,300
Eurozone	1.1	1.08	1.06	1.07	1.08
Japan	111	113	115	114	113
United States	…	…	…	…	…

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

	1Q19	2Q19	3Q19	4Q19	1Q20
China*	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35
Hong Kong	…	…	…	…	…
India	6.25	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.00
Indonesia	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.00	6.00
Malaysia	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.25
Philippines	4.75	4.75	4.75	4.75	4.75
Singapore**	1.80	2.05	2.30	2.30	2.30
South Korea	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75
Taiwan	1.38	1.38	1.38	1.38	1.38
Thailand	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75
Vietnam***	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.25	6.00
Eurozone	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Japan	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10	-0.10
United States	2.50	2.50	2.75	3.00	3.00

* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019

Global

Global / Rates

Macro Strategy

March 21, 2019

FOMC relent and the rates/FX outlook

Global / GDP

Chart of the Week: Fed vs Markets

March 18, 2019

Fed rate pause is expected to continue at Thursday’s decision. New dot plots bear watching.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Economics & Strategy

Research Library...

March 21, 2019

Economics and Macro Strategy

Key Summary Points

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Asia
Global

Asia
Global

Singapore / Rates

SGD rates: Time to outperform

March 12, 2019
India / Economics

Video: India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019
Asia / GDP

Video: Nowcasting the GDP of China, India and Singapore

February 27, 2019

Singapore / Economics

Video: Singapore Budget 2019 - Key takeaways

February 20, 2019
China / Economics

China chart book - Some relief from January exports

February 18, 2019
China / Economics

China: PMI highlights need for further policy support

January 31, 2019

Singapore / Equities

Top-10 investment strategies for 2019: #10

January 22, 2019
China / Economics

China: Growth continues to slow

January 21, 2019
China / FX

Top-10 investment strategies for 2019: #9

January 21, 2019

Economics

Research Library

Fed’s dovish tilt and ma...

Thailand: Elections a bi...

AsiaView All

Shanghai trip notes: Weak demand; improving liquidity

SGD rates: Time to outperform

Video: India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

Key Indicators

GDP growth, % YoY

CPI inflation, % YoY

Exchange rates, end of period

Policy interest rates, end of period

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

Macro Insights

India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

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Macro Strategy

Chart of the Week: Fed vs Markets

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Key Summary Points

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China: PMI highlights need for further policy support

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China: Growth continues to slow

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