Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Global / GDP

Macro Insights Weekly: Shape of 4Q20 and 1Q21

January 11, 2021
Macro Insights Weekly: Shape of 4Q20 and 1Q21

Markets are keen to leave the tumult of Brexit and US elections behind, and embrace the upside of vaccine rollout and fiscal stimulus in the US and EU.

Indonesia / GDP, Fiscal

Indonesia: Seeking a flatter pandemic curve

January 11, 2021
Indonesia: Seeking a flatter pandemic curve

Indonesia bond and FX markets have kickstarted the year on a firm footing. Rising COVID-19 caseload and growth impact will keep the door open for easing this year.

Japan / GDP

Japan: Implications of Covid state of emergency

January 07, 2021
Japan: Implications of Covid state of emergency

Japan is set to declare a one-month state of emergency for the Tokyo area.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

20192020f2021f2022f
China6.12.07.05.5
Hong Kong-1.2-7.04.02.3
India4.9-7.47.64.3
Indonesia5.0-2.04.04.5
Malaysia4.3-6.86.04.8
Philippines**5.9-9.57.06.0
Singapore0.7-5.85.53.2
South Korea2.0-1.12.92.8
Taiwan3.01.84.22.8
Thailand2.4-6.33.52.2
Vietnam7.02.96.76.8
Eurozone0.9-8.04.03.5
Japan0.7-5.02.81.5
United States***2.3-3.25.52.2
** new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: DBS Group Research, CEIC

CPI inflation, % YoY

20192020f2021f2022f
China2.92.32.52.5
Hong Kong2.90.72.02.5
India3.76.74.24.0
Indonesia2.82.02.22.8
Malaysia0.7-1.11.42.0
Philippines**2.52.43.02.8
Singapore0.6-0.20.91.5
South Korea0.40.50.51.0
Taiwan0.6-0.20.51.0
Thailand0.7-1.01.01.3
Vietnam2.83.23.33.6
Eurozone1.20.31.01.2
Japan0.5-0.10.00.5
United States***2.31.31.72.2
** new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: DBS Group Research, CEIC

Exchange rates, end of period

1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q22
Mainland China*6.76.676.646.616.59
Hong Kong7.767.767.777.777.78
India74.874.774.674.574.4
Indonesia14,50014430143601429014210
Malaysia4.114.094.084.064.05
Philippines48.548.348.24847.8
Singapore**1.3451.341.3351.331.33
South Korea1,1151,1101,1001,0901,085
Taiwan
Thailand3130.830.630.430.2
Vietnam***23,16023,10023,05022,99022,940
Eurozone1.181.191.21.211.22
Japan106106106106105
United States

Policy interest rates, end of period

1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q22
Mainland China*3.853.853.853.853.85
Hong Kong
India4.004.004.004.004.00
Indonesia3.503.503.503.503.50
Malaysia1.751.752.002.002.25
Philippines2.002.002.002.002.00
Singapore**0.120.120.120.120.12
South Korea0.500.500.500.500.50
Taiwan1.131.131.131.131.13
Thailand0.500.500.500.500.50
Vietnam***4.004.505.005.005.00
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
United States0.250.250.250.250.25

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

Macro Insights

India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019

Global

Global / Economics,Credit,FX

Macro Strategy: Bank Negara; Chinese HY watch; Fed and USD

January 15, 2021
Global

MCO and MGS; HY China Credit watch; USD outlook less bearish.

Global / FX

FX Daily: US goes for “do whatever its take”

January 15, 2021
Global

USD is starting to look better than EUR on a relative basis.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Economics & Strategy

Research Library...

January 15, 2021

Economics and Macro Strategy

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