Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Global / Monetary

Chart of the Week: Buffers to defend HKD

June 17, 2019
Chart of the Week: Buffers to defend HKD

Recent movements in HIBOR already show that the cost of defending the currency will have to be borne by higher interest rates, as selling of USD by HKMA is unlikely to be a sufficient tool.

Global / Monetary

Weekly: Hong Kong under spotlight

June 14, 2019
Weekly: Hong Kong under spotlight

Regardless of the outcome of the ongoing political strife, Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the USD is under scrutiny.

China / Trade

China: Economic dataflow to weaken further

June 12, 2019
China: Economic dataflow to weaken further

Worsening business condition will weigh on equity market performance.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

201620172018e2019f2020f
China6.76.96.66.26.0
Hong Kong2.03.83.32.52.0
India*8.08.27.27.07.0
Indonesia5.05.15.25.25.1
Malaysia4.25.94.74.54.2
Philippines**6.96.76.26.16.1
Singapore2.03.93.22.12.5
South Korea2.93.12.72.12.4
Taiwan1.43.12.61.91.8
Thailand3.23.34.13.84.0
Vietnam6.26.87.16.66.3
Eurozone1.82.51.91.21.5
Japan0.91.90.70.70.5
United States***1.52.32.92.51.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

201620172018e2019f2020f
China2.01.62.12.32.3
Hong Kong2.41.52.52.72.5
India*4.94.53.63.43.8
Indonesia3.53.83.23.63.6
Malaysia2.13.81.01.71.6
Philippines**1.32.95.23.13.1
Singapore-0.50.60.41.11.5
South Korea1.01.91.51.11.5
Taiwan1.40.61.30.71.0
Thailand0.20.71.11.01.3
Vietnam2.73.53.53.83.4
Eurozone0.21.51.81.21.3
Japan-0.10.51.01.11.6
United States***1.32.12.41.71.6
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

Mar-292Q193Q194Q191Q20
China*6.716.857.006.956.90
Hong Kong7.857.857.857.847.83
India69.1670.0071.0071.5071.00
Indonesia14,24314,30014,50014,40014,300
Malaysia4.084.104.204.254.20
Philippines52.654.055.054.554.0
Singapore**1.361.371.401.391.38
South Korea1,1351,1701,1801,1701,165
Taiwan
Thailand31.732.533.032.832.6
Vietnam***23,18923,25023,30023,28023,300
Eurozone1.121.121.101.111.12
Japan111113115114113
United States
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q20
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kong
India6.255.755.755.755.75
Indonesia6.006.006.006.006.00
Malaysia3.253.003.003.003.00
Philippines4.754.504.254.254.25
Singapore**1.951.951.951.951.95
South Korea1.751.751.501.501.50
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
Thailand1.751.751.751.751.75
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.00
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
United States2.502.502.502.502.50
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

Macro Insights

India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019

Global

Global / FX, Rates

Fed will play up policy flexibility; USD underpinned by G3 ...

June 17, 2019
Global

Forward guidance from the Fed will be closely watched.

Global / FX, Equities

Insurance cuts supportive of equities; still like USD over ...

June 14, 2019
Global

Fed rate cuts could benefit equities in Hong Kong, Singapore, Philippines and Indonesia. The support for the USD Index (DXY) remains intact around 96.5.

Insights and Analysis

Taiwan / Growth

Taiwan chart book: Trade war’s costs and silver lining...

June 17, 2019

Industrial activities extended weakness in May and consumer confidence plunged. But exports to the US picked up, and investment applications from the offshore Taiwanese firms started to increase.

Key summary points
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    There were no dcr path found

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