Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

China / GDP

China’s foreign policy will drive economic policy

May 25, 2017
China’s foreign policy will drive economic policy

China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative is exemplary of the country’s integration of foreign policy with economic policy – and the stronger political impetus of the former will impact the latter.

Singapore / GDP

Structural challenges continue to weigh on Singapore’s grow...

May 25, 2017
Structural challenges continue to weigh on Singapore’s growth

Singapore’s 1Q17 GDP figures saw a smaller-than-expected upward revision. The economic turnaround has been uneven and restricted to just a few externally driven clusters.

Japan / Inflation

Japan’s core-core inflation likely to remain close to zero ...

May 25, 2017
Japan’s core-core inflation likely to remain close to zero in April

We expect core-core CPI to rise only slightly in the coming quarters and as such, see weak inflation continuing to pose challenges to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.52.6
Japan0.31.21.01.31.0
Eurozone0.91.91.71.61.7
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.4
Malaysia6.05.04.24.54.6
Philippines6.25.96.86.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.66.7
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.52.5
India*7.27.97.27.67.8
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.22.32.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.31.4
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.1
Malaysia3.12.12.12.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.93.0
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.21.62.1
Vietnam4.10.62.74.03.2
China2.01.42.02.32.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.42.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.64.55.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US
Japan111.6113114116117
Eurozone1.1231.091.081.081.08
Indonesia13,31113,55113,61413,67713,740
Malaysia4.284.364.374.374.38
Philippines49.950.250.751.151.5
Singapore1.381.401.411.411.41
Thailand34.334.835.135.435.7
Vietnam^22,68022,64522,69522,74422,794
China*6.896.906.967.037.10
Hong Kong7.797.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.231.031.131.131.2
South Korea1,1201,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.764.764.864.965.0
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current2Q173Q174Q171Q18
US1.001.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.256.256.256.25
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

US / Rates

A gradual approach to shrinking Fed balance sheet to reduce...

May 25, 2017
US

And we are of the view that shrinking the balance sheet should not have much impact on USD interest rates for quite some time.

US / GDP

We’re still waiting for a more credible US budget plan

May 25, 2017
US

We have yet to factor any Trump stimulus into our outlook for the US economy. Until a more credible budget plan is seen, we’re inclined to keep things that way.

Insights and Analysis

Europe / Rates

The European Central Bank is not ready to hike rates...

May 23, 2017

The ECB is unlikely to tighten monetary policy quickly; inflation – as well as memories of premature hikes in 2008 and 2011 – will stay their hand.

Key summary points
  • Some of the risks clouding the Eurozone have cleared
  • Steady growth and receding fears of a currency break-up have fuelled expectations of ECB tightening
  • Inflation will be the key driver of policy action; we are not there yet
  • Memories of premature hikes in 2008 and 2011 will stay their hand
  • Markets need to differentiate between rate hikes and tapering; the ECB will focus on the latter

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

Discover All

  • Asia
  • Global
  • Asia
  • Global