Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Global / Economics

Video: Macro Insights video on FOMC meeting and implication...

March 25, 2019
Video: Macro Insights video on FOMC meeting and implication for assets

Another Macro Insights video, in which DBS Chief Economist Taimur Baig discusses the latest FOMC decision with our rates strategist, Eugene Leow.

China / Economics

Shanghai trip notes: Weak demand; improving liquidity

March 14, 2019
Shanghai trip notes: Weak demand; improving liquidity

The top client questions were on trade war, exchange rates, and impact of fiscal/monetary policy on growth outlook.

Singapore / Rates

SGD rates: Time to outperform

March 12, 2019
SGD rates: Time to outperform

SGD rates outperformance ahead.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

201620172018e2019f2020f
China6.76.96.66.26.0
Hong Kong2.03.83.32.52.0
India*8.07.16.77.17.4
Indonesia5.05.15.25.25.1
Malaysia4.25.94.74.54.2
Philippines**6.96.76.36.56.4
Singapore2.03.93.23.02.8
South Korea2.93.12.72.62.4
Taiwan1.43.12.61.91.8
Thailand3.23.34.13.84.0
Vietnam6.26.87.16.66.3
Eurozone1.82.51.91.21.5
Japan0.91.90.70.70.5
United States***1.52.32.92.51.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

201620172018e2019f2020f
China2.01.62.12.32.3
Hong Kong2.41.52.52.72.5
India*4.94.53.63.53.8
Indonesia3.53.83.23.63.6
Malaysia2.13.811.71.6
Philippines**1.32.95.23.93.8
Singapore-0.50.60.41.81.5
South Korea1.01.91.51.11.5
Taiwan1.40.61.30.71.0
Thailand0.20.71.11.01.3
Vietnam2.73.53.53.83.4
Eurozone0.21.51.81.21.3
Japan-0.10.51.01.11.6
United States***1.32.12.41.51.5
* refers to year ending March **new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q20
China*6.696.857.006.956.90
Hong Kong7.857.857.857.847.83
India68.5870.0071.0071.5071.00
Indonesia14,08614,30014,50014,40014,300
Malaysia4.064.104.204.254.20
Philippines52.854.055.054.554.0
Singapore**1.351.371.401.391.38
South Korea1,1261,1351,1451,1401,135
Taiwan
Thailand31.732.533.032.832.6
Vietnam***23,20723,25023,30023,28023,300
Eurozone1.141.121.101.111.12
Japan110.7113115114113
United States
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

Mar-202Q193Q194Q191Q20
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kong
India6.256.006.006.006.00
Indonesia6.006.006.006.006.00
Malaysia3.253.253.253.253.25
Philippines4.754.754.754.754.75
Singapore**1.951.951.951.951.95
South Korea1.751.751.751.751.75
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
Thailand1.751.751.751.751.75
Vietnam***6.256.256.256.256.00
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
United States2.502.502.502.502.50
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

Macro Insights

India’s Economies and Markets Around Elections

March 05, 2019

Global

Global / Rates

Macro Strategy

March 26, 2019
Global

Carry trades still in vogue; Thailand election results leaves lingering uncertaintie

Global / GDP

Chart of the Week: US recession probabilities rise, but whe...

March 25, 2019
Global

Recession or sharp slowdown is coming, but it is unlikely in 2019, in our view.

Insights and Analysis

Global / Economics & Strategy

Research Library...

March 26, 2019

Economics and Macro Strategy

Key Summary Points
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