Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

India / Rates

Monetary easing is no silver bullet

July 24, 2017
Monetary easing is no silver bullet

While observers debate whether India’s central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points or remain on hold, we would argue that a measured rate cut may not make a material difference to growth.

Singapore / Inflation

June dip may be temporary

July 24, 2017
June dip may be temporary

Singapore’s inflation is expected to dip in June, with the spike up in May likely to prove an abnormality. That said, we do expect core and headline inflation to pick up going forward.

Taiwan / GDP

Taiwan’s 2Q GDP may disappoint but…

July 24, 2017
Taiwan’s 2Q GDP may disappoint but…

Some leading indicators suggest that the 2Q slowdown was temporary and a resilient rebound lies ahead in 2H17.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.62.22.5
Japan0.21.11.01.31.0
Eurozone1.11.91.71.71.8
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.4
Malaysia6.05.04.25.04.6
Philippines6.25.96.96.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.43.5
Vietnam6.06.76.26.36.4
China7.36.96.76.56.3
Hong Kong2.52.41.02.52.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.52.3
South Korea3.32.82.82.72.8
India*7.58.07.17.37.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.52.52.3
Japan2.70.8-0.10.50.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.61.6
Indonesia6.46.43.54.55.0
Malaysia3.12.12.13.72.5
Philippines4.21.41.83.23.2
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.51.21.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.20.91.7
Vietnam4.10.62.73.73.2
China2.01.42.02.02.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.62.02.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.41.21.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.81.6
India*6.04.94.54.04.7
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US
Japan110.9114116117119
Eurozone1.1681.111.111.111.10
Indonesia13,31313,39313,41113,42913,447
Malaysia4.284.224.224.234.24
Philippines50.750.250.450.750.9
Singapore1.361.391.391.401.40
Thailand33.434.434.534.734.9
Vietnam^22,73022,72222,77122,82022,869
China*6.776.886.947.017.08
Hong Kong7.817.787.787.787.78
Taiwan30.431.231.231.331.4
South Korea1,1181,1501,1501,1501,150
India64.364.864.864.965.0
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current3Q174Q171Q182Q18
US1.251.251.501.752.00
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.755.005.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.503.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.256.256.006.006.00
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.50
India6.256.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Currencies

Can EUR strengthen further?

July 24, 2017
Global

Pay attention to price action to key events this week which could see the EUR/USD starting to look for a new consolidation range.

US / GDP

Rate hikes will be slow to dampen housing

July 24, 2017
US

US housing continues to remain strong, with real mortgages at barely 1%. US Federal Reserve normalisation will put a damper on the sector eventually, but that’s some time away.

Insights and Analysis

China / Rates

Bond Connect sees solid demand...

July 17, 2017

The Bond Connect programme, which was launched on 3 July, has been seeing solid demand; the RMB16bn bond issue by Agricultural Development Bank of China was ten times oversubscribed

Key summary points
  • Convenient access to onshore bond market with attractive risk-reward proposition
  • Potential inclusion in global bond indices to trigger portfolio inflow

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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