Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

Singapore / GDP

Is the Worst Behind Us?

January 16, 2017
Is the Worst Behind Us?

Another strong showing is expected from Singapore’s export performance, and – while there are still risks on the horizon – it seems the worst of the export cycle is probably behind us.

India / GDP

Firm Oil Prices Underpin Imports and Inflation

January 16, 2017
Firm Oil Prices Underpin Imports and Inflation

Higher oil prices propped up India’s December 2016 import growth, and we expect to see an uptick in wholesale price index inflation for the same reason.

South Korea / Inflation

Inflation on Target by Mid-Year

January 16, 2017
Inflation on Target by Mid-Year

The Bank of Korea now expects inflation to converge with its 2% target by mid-2017, but a temporary rise in headline inflation doesn’t mean the central bank will raise rates in response.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.52.42.61.72.7
Japan2.00.31.21.01.0
Eurozone-0.30.91.91.61.6
Indonesia5.65.04.85.15.3
Malaysia4.76.05.04.24.5
Philippines7.16.15.96.76.4
Singapore4.42.92.01.21.3
Thailand2.90.92.83.23.4
Vietnam5.46.06.76.26.6
China7.77.36.96.56.5
Hong Kong3.12.52.41.02.0
Taiwan2.24.00.71.52.1
South Korea2.93.32.62.72.5
India*6.77.37.66.97.6
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2013201420152016f2017f
US1.51.60.11.22.2
Japan0.42.70.8-0.10.5
Eurozone1.50.60.00.20.6
Indonesia6.46.46.43.64.5
Malaysia2.13.12.12.02.2
Philippines2.94.21.41.72.7
Singapore2.41.0-0.5-0.50.9
Thailand2.21.9-0.90.21.5
Vietnam6.64.10.62.73.4
China2.62.01.42.01.8
Hong Kong4.34.43.02.61.5
Taiwan0.81.2-0.31.41.0
South Korea1.31.30.71.01.6
India*9.56.04.94.85.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US
Japan114.2111113114115
Eurozone1.0631.051.051.041.04
Indonesia13,33013,33913,51813,69713,876
Malaysia4.464.464.564.674.78
Philippines49.649.850.250.751.1
Singapore1.431.441.451.461.48
Thailand35.436.336.536.636.8
Vietnam^22,57022,78222,78222,78222,782
China*6.906.937.027.117.19
Hong Kong7.767.787.787.787.78
Taiwan31.632.232.432.532.7
South Korea1,1751,1991,2011,2041,206
India68.269.670.571.472.4
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current1Q172Q173Q174Q17
US0.751.001.251.501.75
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.20-0.20
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.754.754.755.005.00
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.506.506.506.506.50
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.251.25
India6.256.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Global / Rates

Global Short-Term Rates Rising

January 16, 2017
Global

Short-term swap rates across the globe are generally pointing toward tighter monetary policy over the coming three years.

Europe / Rates

ECB Rhetoric Under Watch

January 16, 2017
Europe

No fresh measures are expected from the European Central Bank’s Thursday meeting but policy rhetoric will be sifted through to gauge its interpretation of improving data prints.

Insights and Analysis

India / GDP

Fiscal Discipline to Remain Priority...

January 12, 2017

India’s government is expected to adhere to its fiscal roadmap as it tables its 2017/18 budget next month, despite the drag on growth arising from the demonetisation initiative.

Key summary points
  • India likely to meet fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of GDP for 2016/17 fiscal year on higher revenues
  • Expect budget deficit target of 3% of GDP for 2017/18 fiscal year as set by the fiscal roadmap
  • Possibility of deficit target range of 3.0-3.3% of GDP to slow the pace of belt-tightening
  • Rating agencies remain positive on India but scope for upgrade is low in near-term

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