Economics

Daily analysis of the latest economic data points and policy developments in Asia and the major economies of the world.

Asia

South Korea / Rates

Normalisation prospects bring attention to KRW

October 20, 2017
Normalisation prospects bring attention to KRW

The USD/KRW has scope to move lower toward the floor of its KRW1,110-1,150 range, if the Korea 10-year bond yield widens its differential against its US counterpart.

South Korea / Rates

En route to normalisation… unless geopolitics get in the wa

October 20, 2017
En route to normalisation… unless geopolitics get in the way

Market expectations for monetary tightening in South Korea have increased significantly following the central bank’s meeting this week, but tensions with North Korea remain the wild card.

India / Rates

RBI takes a long view

October 19, 2017
RBI takes a long view

The Reserve Bank of India’s caution with respect to easing rates is another sign that the central bank views the current slowdown as more cyclical than structural.

Key Indicators

  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates
  • GDP
  • Inflation
  • Currency
  • Interest Rates

GDP growth, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US2.42.61.52.22.5
Japan0.21.11.01.61.1
Eurozone1.11.91.72.02.0
Indonesia5.04.95.05.15.3
Malaysia6.05.04.25.34.6
Philippines6.25.96.96.46.7
Singapore2.92.02.02.82.5
Thailand0.92.93.23.53.6
Vietnam6.06.76.26.36.4
China7.36.96.76.76.4
Hong Kong2.52.41.03.02.1
Taiwan4.00.71.52.42.5
South Korea3.32.82.82.82.9
India*7.58.07.16.87.3
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

CPI inflation, % YoY

2014201520162017f2018f
US1.60.11.31.92.1
Japan2.70.8-0.10.40.6
Eurozone0.60.00.21.51.2
Indonesia6.46.43.54.24.5
Malaysia3.12.12.13.42.5
Philippines4.21.41.82.92.9
Singapore1.0-0.5-0.50.91.8
Thailand1.9-0.90.20.51.2
Vietnam4.10.62.73.73.6
China2.01.42.01.62.1
Hong Kong4.43.02.61.82.5
Taiwan1.2-0.31.40.91.0
South Korea1.30.71.01.91.8
India*6.04.94.53.64.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; prior to 2013 inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Group Research

Exchange rates, end of period

current4Q171Q182Q183Q18
US
Japan112.6110110110110
Eurozone1.1851.171.171.171.17
Indonesia13,51513,41113,42913,44713,465
Malaysia4.224.224.234.244.25
Philippines51.551.251.652.052.4
Singapore1.361.361.361.361.36
Thailand33.133.133.133.133.1
Vietnam^22,72422,77122,82022,86922,917
China*6.616.586.586.586.58
Hong Kong7.807.837.837.837.82
Taiwan30.230.530.530.530.5
South Korea1,1291,1501,1501,1501,150
India65.064.864.965.065.1
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

Policy interest rates, end of period

current4Q171Q182Q183Q18
US1.251.501.752.002.25
Japan-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10
Eurozone0.000.000.000.000.00
Indonesia4.254.254.254.254.25
Malaysia3.003.003.003.003.00
Philippines3.003.253.503.503.50
Singaporen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Thailand1.501.501.501.501.50
Vietnam^6.256.006.006.006.00
China*4.354.354.354.354.35
Hong Kongn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Taiwan1.381.381.381.381.38
South Korea1.251.251.251.501.50
India6.006.006.006.006.00
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate
Source: Bloomberg and DBS Group Research

From the Asian Insights Office

China: Defining the New Normal

China’s push for growth-at-any-cost is being replaced with the “New Normal”.It will fundamentally change how business and investing are done.

Read More

DBS Asian Insights

2017 Global Macro Outlook

December 14, 2016

Global

Europe / Rates

Political uncertainties won’t derail QE

October 20, 2017
Europe

Political headwinds are unlikely to throw the European Central Bank off its plans to taper quantitative easing later this month, possibly with a “lower volumes for longer duration” stance.

US / Rates

The Taylor rule and why USD rates are buoyant

October 20, 2017
US

The different assumptions underlying inflation and employment – as well as speculation on the successor of Fed chair Janet Yellen – are complicating forecasts on USD interest rates.

Insights and Analysis

India / GDP

Reserves accumulation to moderate...

October 17, 2017

While the pace of reserves accumulation in India will moderate, the current stock should be sufficient to cushion India against external vulnerabilities.

Key summary points
  • India’s foreign reserves rose to a record high in September
  • Since the taper tantrums in 2013, India’s foreign reserves has increased the most in Asia ex-Japan
  • The pace of reserves accumulation is likely to moderate…
  • …on slower portfolio inflows and a wider current account deficit
  • The current reserve stock is sufficient to cushion India against external vulnerabilities

Read more reports

There were no dcr path found

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